Aluminium Scrap Widens Lead Over Copper on India Demand

Aluminium Scrap Widens Lead Over Copper on India Demand

Recyclers monitoring cross-border scrap flows are seeing a marked divergence in margin opportunity between aluminium and copper routes this week. Aluminium UBC (used beverage can) scrap moving from Germany to India is pricing at a landed cost of approximately $2,040/MT with a gross margin of 12.8%—translating to roughly $260/MT of spread before logistics, financing, and processing overhead.

By contrast, copper millberry scrap routed from Poland to Turkey is landing at $8,575/MT with a 5.0% gross margin, or about $425/MT in absolute terms. While the copper corridor offers higher notional dollar spreads, the percentage return is less than half that of the aluminium trade.

What's Driving the Gap

Several factors explain the disparity:

• Demand geography: Indian smelters continue absorbing UBC at competitive premiums, supported by domestic beverage-can production growth and import substitution.
• Supply-demand balance: Turkish copper refineries face steady feedstock availability from Eastern European sources, limiting upside margin.
• Confidence levels: The aluminium corridor shows 0.78 confidence versus 0.72 for copper, suggesting tighter pricing transparency and more reliable execution in the UBC-to-India flow.

Landed Cost Matters

Traders and brokers should note that both margins are gross and net of landed cost only. Actual profit depends on financing rates, inland transport, sampling fees, and currency volatility. A 12.8% spread on $2,040/MT may compress quickly if freight or working-capital costs spike. Similarly, the 5.0% copper margin leaves minimal buffer for execution risk.

Platform confidence scores (0.72–0.78) reflect data density and price agreement among contributors; they do not predict execution success or final settlement.

Market Takeaway

Recyclers with access to German UBC supply may find India-bound flows more attractive on a percentage basis this week. Copper-focused traders should monitor Turkish refinery intake and Polish supply logistics for any shifts that could tighten or widen the 5.0% margin. Both corridors remain viable; the choice depends on counterparty relationships, working-capital appetite, and risk tolerance for currency and commodity swings.

See it on the platform

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ArbiTrade provides market intelligence and coordination only. It does not execute trades, hold funds, act as a counterparty, or guarantee pricing, execution, or profit. This article is general commentary, not investment, legal, or trading advice. Conduct independent diligence before transacting.