Aluminium UBC spreads widen as India demand outpaces European supply

Aluminium UBC spreads widen as India demand outpaces European supply

European aluminium UBC (used beverage can) scrap is pricing at a widening premium into India this week, with gross margins reaching 12.8%—the highest level in the past month. Landed costs are settling around $2,040/MT, reflecting both stronger Indian offtake and tighter German sourcing.

The spread reflects structural demand: Indian remelters are absorbing secondary aluminium at pace ahead of the monsoon season, when logistics costs typically rise. German collectors report steady supply, but the velocity of export inquiries has accelerated, narrowing available inventory windows.

Copper millberry remains range-bound. The Poland-to-Turkey corridor is holding at 5.0% gross margin ($425/MT landed cost ~$8,575/MT), a level consistent with the past two weeks. Turkish smelters are operating at steady-state intake; no new capacity came online last month, and scrap demand remains aligned with refined-copper market signals rather than speculative buying.

What traders should track

• UBC confidence: 0.78 confidence score on the India corridor reflects consistent bid depth and low execution friction. Smaller lots (50–100 MT) are moving in 8–10 days.
• Copper volatility: Millberry spreads are sensitive to LME copper pricing. A $200/MT move in refined copper can compress the arbitrage by 1–2 percentage points within 48 hours.
• Seasonal rhythm: June typically sees stronger Indian demand as monsoon logistics premiums build. Expect UBC margins to remain elevated through July unless Indian domestic scrap collections accelerate.

Both corridors remain liquid and tradeable at current levels. Recyclers and brokers should monitor Turkish smelter intake schedules and Indian port congestion reports—both are early indicators of margin compression.

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ArbiTrade provides market intelligence and coordination only. It does not execute trades, hold funds, act as a counterparty, or guarantee pricing, execution, or profit. This article is general commentary, not investment, legal, or trading advice. Conduct independent diligence before transacting.